This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Belgium | 35.0% |
New Zealand | 34.5% |
Finland | 31.5% |
Greece | 31.5% |
Japan | 29.0% |
The Netherlands | 26.0% |
CurrentAustria | 16.5% |
Italy | 15.5% |
Germany | 13.0% |
United States | 6.5% |
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Kalshi | 7.0% | $9,330 | Trade |