This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
CurrentKevin Warsh | 93.7% |
Rick Rieder | 7.5% |
James Bullard | 3.8% |
Judy Shelton |
Stephen Miran | 0.7% |
No one nominated before 2027 | 0.6% |
Michelle Bowman | 0.4% |
Christopher Waller | 0.4% |
Rick Rieder | 0.4% |
Kevin Hassett | 0.3% |
Lorie K. Logan | 0.1% |
Janet Yellen | 0.1% |
Larry Lindsey | 0.1% |
Barron Trump | 0.1% |
Donald Trump | 0.1% |
Philip Jefferson | 0.1% |
Bill Pulte | 0.1% |
David Malpass | 0.1% |
Howard Lutnick | 0.1% |
Arthur Laffer | 0.1% |
Larry Kudlow | 0.1% |
Jerome Powell | 0.1% |
Ron Paul | 0.1% |
Scott Bessent | 0.1% |
James Bullard | 0.1% |
Marc Sumerlin | 0.1% |
David Zervos | 0.1% |
Individual V | 0.0% |
Individual Z | 0.0% |
Individual U | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Individual T | 0.0% |
Individual Y | 0.0% |
Individual X | 0.0% |
Individual S | 0.0% |
Individual W | 0.0% |
Individual P | 0.0% |
Individual Q | 0.0% |
Individual R | 0.0% |
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