This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Kevin Warsh | 43.5% |
Kevin Hassett | 34.5% |
Rick Rieder | 8.5% |
Christopher Waller | 8.2% |
Rick Rieder | 7.5% |
CurrentJames Bullard | 3.8% |
Scott Bessent | 1.6% |
Michelle Bowman | 1.5% |
Stephen Miran | 1.2% |
Judy Shelton | 1.1% |
No one nominated before 2027 | 0.3% |
David Malpass | 0.2% |
Jerome Powell | 0.1% |
Howard Lutnick | 0.1% |
Philip Jefferson | 0.1% |
Bill Pulte | 0.1% |
Arthur Laffer | 0.1% |
Larry Kudlow | 0.1% |
Ron Paul | 0.1% |
James Bullard | 0.1% |
Marc Sumerlin | 0.1% |
David Zervos | 0.1% |
Lorie K. Logan | 0.1% |
Janet Yellen | 0.1% |
Larry Lindsey | 0.1% |
Barron Trump | 0.1% |
Donald Trump | 0.1% |
Individual T | 0.0% |
Individual X | 0.0% |
Individual W | 0.0% |
Individual Z | 0.0% |
Individual S | 0.0% |
Individual R | 0.0% |
Other | 0.0% |
Individual Q | 0.0% |
Individual V | 0.0% |
Individual P | 0.0% |
Individual Y | 0.0% |
Individual U | 0.0% |