This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Stefan Brodie | 60.0% |
Donald Brodie | 58.0% |
Matt Gaetz | 48.0% |
Ryan Salame | 39.5% |
Roger Stone | 39.0% |
Daniel Penny | 36.5% |
Young Thug | 29.0% |
Steve Bannon | 22.0% |
Bob Menendez | 20.0% |
Keonne Rodriguez | 19.0% |
Eric Adams | 18.0% |
Joe Exotic | 15.5% |
Roger Ver | 12.5% |
CurrentMartin Shkreli | 10.0% |
Nicolas Maduro | 8.5% |
Diddy | 7.8% |
Elizabeth Holmes | 7.5% |
Do Kwon | 7.3% |
Ghislaine Maxwell | 7.0% |
Edward Snowden | 7.0% |
Sam Bankman-Fried | 6.5% |
Antoine Massey | 6.3% |
Derek Chauvin | 5.5% |
Hunter Biden | 3.2% |
Elon Musk | 2.8% |
Julian Assange | 2.1% |
Himself | 2.1% |
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