This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between January 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Donald Brodie | 49.0% |
Daniel Penny | 48.5% |
Matt Gaetz | 47.5% |
Young Thug | 47.5% |
Joe Exotic | 47.0% |
Steve Bannon | 38.0% |
Keonne Rodriguez | 37.0% |
CurrentMartin Shkreli | 18.5% |
Roger Ver | 17.5% |
Roger Stone | 17.0% |
Eric Adams | 15.5% |
Bob Menendez | 14.5% |
Julian Assange | 13.0% |
Elizabeth Holmes | 10.5% |
Edward Snowden | 9.0% |
Derek Chauvin | 8.5% |
Antoine Massey | 8.5% |
Ghislaine Maxwell | 8.0% |
Elon Musk | 7.4% |
Ryan Salame | 6.5% |
Sam Bankman-Fried | 6.5% |
Nicolas Maduro | 6.5% |
Do Kwon | 6.0% |
Diddy | 5.0% |
Himself | 4.0% |
Hunter Biden | 3.5% |