This market will resolve according to the first individual that ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criteria has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
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| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
Schoof - Netherlands PM | 43.7% |
Khamenei - Iran Supreme Leader | 20.2% |
Takaichi - Japan PM | 5.1% |
3.6% |
Abbas - President of Palestine | 2.8% |
Netanyahu - Israel PM | 2.4% |
Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 2.4% |
CurrentTrump - USA President | 2.3% |
None before 2027 | 2.2% |
Macron - France President | 2.0% |
Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 1.9% |
Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1.1% |
Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 0.7% |
Albanese - Australia PM | 0.4% |
al-Assad - Syria President | 0.0% |
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