What is the current probability for "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Artist-Songwriter of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 47¢ (47% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Artist-Songwriter of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 253.8% and 87.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Artist-Songwriter of the Year?

Prediction markets currently give a 47% probability that 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Artist-Songwriter of the Year?. This contract trades at 47¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

███████████████████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

47¢

Bid/Ask 37/50¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $0·OI $120.64·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

KXACMAASWOTY-68-ELL

7-day price9 snapshots · 2 regime

38¢37¢ current

Apr 2433¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Ella Langley has won Artist-Songwriter of the Year at the 61st Academy of Country Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 253.8%

IY (No) 87.5%

Adj IY 127%

CRI 2

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	253.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	87.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	127%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 6:30:17 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 6:23:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXACMAASWOTY-68-ELL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

Related Prediction Market Questions