What is the current probability for "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Male Artist of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 51¢ (51% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Male Artist of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 197.5% and 112.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Male Artist of the Year?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Male Artist of the Year?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 51% probability that 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for Male Artist of the Year?. This contract trades at 51¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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51¢

Bid/Ask 43/51¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $1.89·OI $958.54·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

KXACMAMAOTY-68-LUK

7-day price60 snapshots · 8 regime

44¢43¢ current

Apr 231¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Luke Combs has won Male Artist of the Year at the 61st Academy of Country Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 197.5%

IY (No) 112.4%

Adj IY 198%

CRI 1

RV 166%

VR 1.13

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	197.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	112.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	198%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	166%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.13	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.4/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

8¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:00:47 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXACMAMAOTY-68-LUK yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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