What is the current probability for "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for New Male Artist of the Year?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 29¢ (29% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on December 31, 2026. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "2026 Academy of Country Music Award for New Male Artist of the Year?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1341.2% and 16.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

2026 Academy of Country Music Award for New Male Artist of the Year?

Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that 2026 Academy of Country Music Award for New Male Artist of the Year?. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026.

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29¢

Bid/Ask 10/23¢·Spread 13¢·Vol $117.74·OI $504.28·Closes Dec 31, 2026·245d remaining

KXACMANMAOTY-68-SHA

7-day price21 snapshots · 1 regime

51¢10¢ current

Apr 231¢Apr 30

Resolution rules

If Shaboozey has won New Male Artist of the Year at the 61st Academy of Country Music Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1341.2%

IY (No) 16.6%

Adj IY 1341%

CRI 9

RV 1760%

VR 11.84

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1341.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	16.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1341%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1760%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	11.84	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

13¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 5:01:04 PM

Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:53:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXACMANMAOTY-68-SHA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

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