La Velada del Año VI: Rivers vs Roro Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 83% probability that La Velada del Año VI: Rivers vs Roro Winner?. This contract trades at 83¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction typical of micro-cap prediction markets, with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 7693% implied yield on the Yes side.

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83¢
Bid/Ask 4/83¢·Spread 79¢·Vol $1·OI $45·Closes Aug 8, 2026·105d remaining
KXBOXING-26JUL25RIVERORO-RORO
7-day price460 snapshots · 3 regime
83¢4¢ current
Apr 81¢Apr 25

Analysis

8d ago

This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction typical of micro-cap prediction markets, with only $14 open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite a massive 7693% implied yield on the Yes side. The 79¢ bid-ask spread represents nearly the entire price range, and the recent 7-day collapse from 7¢ to 4¢ suggests the market has repriced sharply downward, though the current 83¢ quote appears stale given the lack of recent trading activity. With 114 days to expiry and a boxing event originally scheduled for July 25, 2026, this market faces significant cliff risk (24 score) and may face resolution complications if the match is postponed or cancelled.

Resolution rules

If Roro wins the La Velada del Año VI: Rivers vs Roro boxing match originally scheduled for Jul 25, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 8346.7%
IY (No) 14.5%
Adj IY 8347%
CRI 24
RV 5534%
VR 5.43
▶ Full indicator table (7)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)8346.7%
IY (No)14.5%
Adj IY8347%
CRI24
RV5534%
VR5.43
IAR0.7/h

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
79¢
Computed
4/25/2026, 11:20:26 PM
Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:08:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXBOXING-26JUL25RIVERORO-RORO yes 100

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