La Velada del Año VI
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 50% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
50%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$20K
6 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
41 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 11% of their title tokens — “Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn Winner” vs “Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Ryan Garcia vs Conor Benn Winner
Cluster 2
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner
Cluster 3
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner
Analysis
La Velada del Año VI is a Spanish-language boxing event featuring multiple matchups. The 30% probability reflects uncertainty about whether the event will occur as currently scheduled. The main contracts track high-profile fights including Mayweather vs. Pacquiao and Canelo vs. Mbilli, with trading volume concentrated on the heavyweight matchups. The probability is driven by factors including event confirmation status, fighter availability, and scheduling. Market participants are pricing in meaningful doubt about execution, as evidenced by moderate volume and dispersed contract prices. Resolution will depend on official announcement of the event date and final fight card confirmation from organizers.
- ›Trading volume is concentrated on Mayweather-Pacquiao and Canelo-Mbilli contracts, indicating market focus on marquee fights rather than the overall event viability
- ›Kalshi contract prices show Mayweather favored at 65¢ over Pacquiao at 37¢, and Canelo heavily favored at 76¢ over Mbilli at 23¢, suggesting conditional probability factors into event-level assessment
- ›The IlloJuan vs TheGrefg contract trades with minimal volume ($15 24h), indicating lower market interest in secondary matchups
- ›Aggregate 30% probability suggests roughly 70% market confidence in the event occurring, with execution risk as the primary uncertainty
- ›As of July 2026, the event status and official date confirmation would be the most material catalyst for near-term probability movement
What moved the line
- Aug 19Canelo Alvarez↑6pp65→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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