La Velada del Año VI
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 40% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
40%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$129K
20 contracts
Closes
Oct 4, 2026
100 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 0% of their title tokens — “La Velada del Año VI” vs “Xander Zayas vs Jaron Ennis Winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
La Velada del Año VI
La Velada del Año VI: Rivers vs Roro Winner?: Rivers
KXBOXING-26JUL25RIVERORO-RIVE
La Velada del Año VI: Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo Winner?: Kidd Keo
KXBOXING-26JUL25LKILKKEO-KKEO
La Velada del Año VI: Lit Killah vs Kidd Keo Winner?: Lit Killah
KXBOXING-26JUL25LKILKKEO-LKIL
La Velada del Año VI: Fabiana Sevillano vs La Parce Winner?: La Parce
KXBOXING-26JUL25FSEVLPAR-LPAR
La Velada del Año VI: Gero Arias vs Viruzz Winner?: Viruzz
KXBOXING-26JUL25GARIVIRU-VIRU
La Velada del Año VI: Edu Aguirre vs Gastón Edul Winner?: Edu Aguirre
KXBOXING-26JUL25EAGUGEDU-EAGU
La Velada del Año VI: IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner?: TheGrefg
KXBOXING-26JUL25ILLOTHEG-THEG
La Velada del Año VI: Gero Arias vs Viruzz Winner?: Gero Arias
KXBOXING-26JUL25GARIVIRU-GARI
La Velada del Año VI: Edu Aguirre vs Gastón Edul Winner?: Gastón Edul
KXBOXING-26JUL25EAGUGEDU-GEDU
Cluster 2
Xander Zayas vs Jaron Ennis Winner
Cluster 3
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli Winner
Cluster 4
Emiliano Vargas vs Bryce Mills Winner
Cluster 5
Floyd Mayweather Jr. vs Manny Pacquiao Winner
Cluster 6
Ben Whittaker vs Richard Rivera Winner
Cluster 7
Floyd Diaz vs Jose Teran Santibanez Winner
Floyd Diaz vs Jose Teran Santibanez Winner?: Floyd Diaz
KXBOXING-26JUN28DIAZSANTIB-DIAZ
Analysis
La Velada del Año VI is a boxing/fighting event featuring multiple scheduled matches. The 40% probability represents the current market expectation that Viruzz will defeat Gero Arias in their matchup, one of several bouts on the card. This probability reflects trader assessments of fighter skill, recent performance, and public betting patterns across available contracts. The market shows meaningful uncertainty: Gero Arias has near-equal pricing at 30¢, indicating traders view the matchup as competitive rather than one-sided. Other featured bouts (Sevillano vs La Parce, Plex vs Fernanfloo, IlloJuan vs TheGrefg) carry different odds, suggesting independent evaluation of each fight. The relatively low trading volume on the Gero-Viruzz contract ($2 in 24h volume) indicates limited liquidity, which may amplify price movements as new information or late betting emerges. Key drivers of probability shifts would include fighter injury reports, recent sparring footage, or public statements affecting perceived readiness before the event date.
- ›Gero Arias contract trades at 30¢ (60% implied probability), creating near-parity with Viruzz's 40¢, suggesting traders assess this matchup as genuinely competitive rather than heavily favoring either fighter
- ›Low 24-hour volume ($2) on the Gero-Virusz contracts indicates minimal recent trading activity, making the 40% price potentially sensitive to new information or larger trades
- ›Top-volume contract (Sevillano vs La Parce at $46 24h vol) shows uneven market attention across event bouts; relative disinterest in some fights may reflect differences in fighter prominence or perceived predictability
- ›No scheduled event date provided in available data; proximity to the event and confirmation of fighter participation would be standard resolution drivers
- ›The 13% probability for TheGrefg against IlloJuan suggests substantial variance in expected competitive balance across the card's different matchups
What moved the line
- Jun 20IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner?: TheGrefg↑27pp15→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18Rivers vs Roro Winner?: Rivers↓15pp42→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner?: TheGrefg↓14pp24→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 18IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner?: TheGrefg↑12pp3→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22IlloJuan vs TheGrefg Winner?: TheGrefg↓12pp42→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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