Will Katie Porter finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will Katie Porter finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing June 2, 2027. This illiquid market has experienced significant price appreciation, rising 167% over seven days from 3¢ to 8¢, though the $0 24-hour volume and $300 open interest suggest minimal trading activity and potential difficulty exiting positions.
Analysis
This illiquid market has experienced significant price appreciation, rising 167% over seven days from 3¢ to 8¢, though the $0 24-hour volume and $300 open interest suggest minimal trading activity and potential difficulty exiting positions. The extreme implied yield of 1019.8% on the Yes side reflects the low absolute price rather than genuine market conviction, and the 3¢ spread represents 37.5% of the current price, indicating wide uncertainty among the few participants. With 412 days to expiration and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, this market appears speculative and thinly traded rather than informationally efficient.
Resolution rules
If Katie Porter finishes in 2nd place in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-KPOR yes 100