Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
97%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 2, 2027
326 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Will Steve Hilton finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?: Steve Hilton
KXCAGOV2ND-26JUN02-2-SHIL
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that Chad Bianco will finish in second place in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election at 14% probability. The relatively low probability reflects Bianco's position as a state official without the statewide name recognition of leading candidates, though as a Republican in a competitive primary he remains a plausible second-place finisher. Movement in this probability would depend on primary polling as the election approaches, candidate fundraising totals, and endorsement patterns among California Republicans. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will definitively resolve this market, with the specific outcome determined by voter distribution across the Republican field.
- ›Current polling from major California Republican primary surveys showing Bianco's relative standing among GOP candidates
- ›Total fundraising and cash-on-hand figures for Bianco compared to other top Republican primary contenders
- ›Endorsements from significant California Republican figures and organizations that could indicate viability
- ›Turnout and voter preference patterns in recent California Republican primaries as a baseline for primary dynamics
- ›Bianco's performance and media coverage in the months immediately preceding the June 2026 primary election
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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