Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Question 1

What is the current probability for "Will Matt Mahan finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This prediction market is currently priced at 9¢ (9% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 2, 2027. 404 days remaining.

Question 2

What is the implied yield on "Will Matt Mahan finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?"?

Accepted Answer

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1716.8% and 4.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Question 3

Where can I trade "Will Matt Mahan finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?"?

Accepted Answer

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1716.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	858%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	6.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Will Matt Mahan finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary?

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