Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for April 2026 be above 110,000?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for April 2026 be above 110,000?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $15 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 27,903.8% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $15 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 5¢ price potentially unreliable despite the 27,903.8% implied yield on the Yes side. The 9¢ spread is notably wide relative to the contract value, and the modest 7-day price movement from 5¢ to 6¢ suggests minimal trading activity rather than genuine conviction. With just 20 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, traders should be cautious about the reliability of this pricing given the illiquid micromarket conditions.
Resolution rules
If Trading Economics reports that United States Challenger job cuts for April 2026 is above 110,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCHCUTS-26MAY07-T110000 yes 100