Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for April 2026 be above 90,000?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will United States Challenger Job Cuts for April 2026 be above 90,000?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing May 7, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 9¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $18 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 18¢ price potentially unreliable despite the modest 9¢ spread. The astronomical 7,627.7% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the market's genuine skepticism that April 2026 job cuts will exceed 90,000—a threshold roughly 50% above recent historical averages. With just 20 days to expiration and a cliff risk index of 4, this is a thin, speculative market where any new economic data could trigger sharp repricing.
Resolution rules
If Trading Economics reports that United States Challenger job cuts for April 2026 is above 90,000, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCHCUTS-26MAY07-T90000 yes 100