Will Lazio win the Coppa Italia?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Will Lazio win the Coppa Italia?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 28, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $391 open interest and a 4¢ spread.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with zero 24-hour volume despite $391 open interest and a 4¢ spread. The 7¢ price implies only a 7% win probability for Lazio, yet the Yes-side implied yield of 13,777% suggests severe mispricing or that the last trade occurred at an artificially depressed level with minimal liquidity to support it. With 42 days to expiration and a realized volatility of 15,459%, this contract is highly unstable and should be approached cautiously—the recent 1¢ to 6¢ price movement over seven days underscores the thin market conditions and potential for sharp repricing as the tournament approaches.
Resolution rules
If Lazio is the 2026 Coppa Italia Champion, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOPPAITALIA-26-LAZ yes 100