Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2028. This Atlanta-specific contract is pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance despite the city being the frontrunner, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,535 open interest against a wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This Atlanta-specific contract is pricing in roughly a one-in-three chance despite the city being the frontrunner, yet the market shows critical illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,535 open interest against a wide 7¢ spread. The 137% implied yield on the Yes side appears inflated relative to the neutral regime and modest 3-point cliff risk, suggesting the thin order book may be distorting valuations rather than reflecting genuine conviction. With 844 days to expiry, the recent 3¢ price decline warrants monitoring as a potential signal of shifting convention venue expectations.
Resolution rules
If Atlanta hosts the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDNC28HOST-28-ATL yes 100