Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention
Leader sits at 21% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 20%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Boston
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
20¢
Chicago
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$37
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 7, 2028
774 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Philadelphia
KXDNC28HOST-28-PHL
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Boston
KXDNC28HOST-28-BOS
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Atlanta
KXDNC28HOST-28-ATL
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Denver
KXDNC28HOST-28-DEN
Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?: Chicago
KXDNC28HOST-28-CHI
Analysis
Boston is currently priced as the most likely host for the 2028 Democratic National Convention at 20%, meaning traders estimate a one-in-five chance the party selects Boston over other candidates. The Democratic National Committee typically selects convention hosts 2-3 years in advance, weighing factors like arena capacity, local party infrastructure, and geographic strategy. Boston faces competition from Chicago, Denver, and Philadelphia—all priced between 10-19%—which have hosted recent conventions or represent key swing regions. The formal selection decision, expected in late 2026 or early 2027, represents the primary catalyst that will resolve this market. Until then, movement could reflect shifts in Democratic campaign priorities, venue availability changes, or local political developments in candidate cities.
- ›The DNC typically announces convention host cities 18-30 months before the event; a formal decision in late 2026/early 2027 would substantially narrow uncertainty
- ›Boston has hosted major political events but lacks recent convention experience compared to cities like Denver (2008) and Chicago (1996), which may factor into selection criteria
- ›Geographic distribution matters to the DNC; selecting from the Northeast (Boston, Philadelphia) versus Midwest (Chicago) versus Mountain West (Denver) reflects different strategic assumptions about battleground regions
- ›Arena capacity and existing infrastructure costs vary significantly—Boston's TD Garden (19,000) versus larger venues in competing cities affects feasibility and budget
- ›Incumbent Democratic strength in northeastern Massachusetts versus competitive margins in swing-state locations like Philadelphia or Denver may influence the committee's venue preference
What moved the line
- Jun 24Denver↓5pp19→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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