Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Which city will host the 2028 Democratic national convention?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing August 7, 2028. This Boston-specific contract shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate.
Analysis
This Boston-specific contract shows extreme illiquidity with only $36 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable as a true probability estimate. The 389.4% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 9/10 cliff risk index suggests this is a highly speculative micro-market where the pricing could be distorted by minimal trading activity rather than informed consensus. With 844 days to expiration, there's substantial time for the actual convention location to be announced, which would likely trigger sharp repricing or resolution.
Resolution rules
If Boston hosts the 2028 Democratic national convention, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXDNC28HOST-28-BOS yes 100