Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday Winner?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 6, 2026. The market is pricing Middlesbrough as heavy favorites at 83¢, but the extreme implied yield asymmetry (470.9% for Yes vs 9772.4% for No) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns rather than genuine conviction.

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85¢
Bid/Ask 85/86¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $7,312.93·OI $5,955.02·Closes May 6, 2026·14d remaining
KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26APR22MIDSHW-MID
7-day price45 snapshots · 38 regime
85¢84¢ current
Apr 194¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

The market is pricing Middlesbrough as heavy favorites at 83¢, but the extreme implied yield asymmetry (470.9% for Yes vs 9772.4% for No) signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns rather than genuine conviction. With only $1,131 in 24-hour volume and a Cliff Risk Index of 5, this thin market has likely experienced sharp price swings—the realized volatility of 19,170% and vol ratio of 19.45 confirm extreme instability, suggesting the 83¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The match is 17 days away with modest recent price appreciation from 79¢, but the neutral regime and low information arrival rate (1.8/h) indicate limited new data is driving the market, making this a speculative position rather than an informed forecast.

Resolution rules

If Middlesbrough wins the Middlesbrough vs Sheffield Wednesday professional EFL Championship soccer game originally scheduled for Apr 22, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 496.4%
IY (No) 13682.6%
Adj IY 13520%
CRI 5
RV 101%
VR 0.45
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)496.4%
IY (No)13682.6%
Adj IY13520%
CRI5
RV101%
VR0.45
IAR0.8/h
Overround-0.0%
LAS0.01

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Computed
4/22/2026, 6:41:04 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 6:38:24 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXEFLCHAMPIONSHIPGAME-26APR22MIDSHW-MID yes 100

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