Arsenal vs Fulham Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Arsenal vs Fulham Winner?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and $4 in 24-hour volume, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with only $5 open interest and $4 in 24-hour volume, making the 23¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 7031% implied yield on the Yes side combined with a 1561% realized volatility and high cliff risk (5/10) suggests the market has experienced sharp price swings—notably rising from 6¢ to 18¢ over seven days—likely driven by minimal order flow rather than fundamental shifts in tie probability. With 27 days to expiry and an information arrival rate of 0.6/hour, this micro-liquidity venue appears unsuitable for serious position-taking on a major EPL fixture.
Resolution rules
If Tie wins the Arsenal vs Fulham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02ARSFUL-TIE yes 100