Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace Winner?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 8198.6% implied yield versus just 217.3% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or structural distortion from minimal trading activity ($5 daily volume, $7 open interest).

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23¢
Bid/Ask 20/23¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $20·OI $236.66·Closes May 16, 2026·22d remaining
KXEPLGAME-26MAY02BOUCRY-CRY
7-day price70 snapshots · 3 regime
28¢20¢ current
Apr 164¢Apr 23

Analysis

5d ago

This illiquid micro-market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 8198.6% implied yield versus just 217.3% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or structural distortion from minimal trading activity ($5 daily volume, $7 open interest). The 28¢ spread is exceptionally wide relative to the 45¢ midpoint, and the 7-day price surge from 6¢ to 14¢ indicates recent volatility despite near-zero liquidity. With only 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this market appears too thin for reliable prediction—the extreme yields likely reflect illiquidity premium rather than genuine edge.

Resolution rules

If Crystal Palace wins the Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6597.7%
IY (No) 412.4%
Adj IY 3299%
CRI 4
Overround -0.1%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)6597.7%
IY (No)412.4%
Adj IY3299%
CRI4
Overround-0.1%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/24/2026, 10:58:35 AM
Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02BOUCRY-CRY yes 100

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