What is the current probability for "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 27¢ (27% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 16, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 5522.0% and 492.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Newcastle vs Brighton Winner?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing May 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and $5 daily volume, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading.

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27¢

Bid/Ask 23/26¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $18·Closes May 16, 2026·22d remaining

KXEPLGAME-26MAY02NEWBRI-TIE

7-day price70 snapshots · 3 regime

75¢23¢ current

Apr 164¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $8 open interest and $5 daily volume, making the 31¢ price potentially unreliable for actual trading. The astronomical 3875% implied yield on the Yes side combined with realized volatility of 1652% and a sharp 7-day price movement from 6¢ to 26¢ suggests either a data anomaly or highly speculative positioning in a thin market. With 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this contract carries significant tail risk and should be approached cautiously given the minimal liquidity depth.

Resolution rules

If Tie wins the Newcastle vs Brighton professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 2, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5522.0%

IY (No) 492.7%

Adj IY 2761%

CRI 3

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5522.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	492.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2761%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:55:46 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY02NEWBRI-TIE yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →