Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Manchester United vs Liverpool Winner?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with only $43 open interest and a $64 24-hour volume supporting a 21¢ price that implies an extraordinarily high 4975% annualized yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets, with only $43 open interest and a $64 24-hour volume supporting a 21¢ price that implies an extraordinarily high 4975% annualized yield on the Yes side. The 7-day price movement from 5¢ to 22¢ (340% appreciation) combined with realized volatility of 3747% and a 6¢ spread suggests the market is highly susceptible to manipulation or reflects genuine uncertainty about a tie outcome in a major EPL fixture with 28 days to expiration. The resolution criteria specifying a tie (not a Manchester United or Liverpool win) is unusual and may explain the depressed probability, though the extreme yield metrics warrant caution regarding actual liquidity for position exit.
Resolution rules
If Tie wins the Manchester United vs Liverpool professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 3, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY03MUNLFC-TIE yes 100