What is the current probability for "Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 18, 2026. 24 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1341.5% and 1705.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading.

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55¢

Bid/Ask 53/56¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $62·OI $167.15·Closes May 18, 2026·24d remaining

KXEPLGAME-26MAY04CFCNFO-CFC

7-day price46 snapshots · 3 regime

55¢53¢ current

Apr 185¢Apr 24

Analysis

5d ago

This market is essentially illiquid with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 50¢ midprice unreliable for actual trading. The extraordinarily high implied yield of 1239.7% on both sides reflects the minimal liquidity rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity, and the 7¢ spread is wide relative to the contract value. With 29 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be approached with extreme caution by retail traders.

Resolution rules

If Chelsea wins the Chelsea vs Nottingham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1341.5%

IY (No) 1705.8%

Adj IY 853%

CRI 1

Overround -0.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1341.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1705.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	853%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 10:56:12 AM

Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY04CFCNFO-CFC yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →