Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?

Prediction markets currently give a 24% probability that Chelsea vs Nottingham Winner?. This contract trades at 24¢ on Kalshi, closing May 18, 2026. This market exhibits severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 10¢ spread, suggesting the contract may be effectively untradeable at posted prices.

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24¢
Bid/Ask 23/24¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $18.27·OI $536.3·Closes May 18, 2026·24d remaining
KXEPLGAME-26MAY04CFCNFO-NFO
7-day price63 snapshots · 3 regime
23¢23¢ current
Apr 185¢Apr 22

Analysis

4d ago

This market exhibits severe illiquidity dysfunction with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a 10¢ spread, suggesting the contract may be effectively untradeable at posted prices. The astronomical 6193% implied yield on the Yes side combined with 1730% realized volatility and a Cliff Risk Index of 5 indicates extreme pricing distortion—likely reflecting the market's inability to find counterparties rather than genuine probability assessment. With 29 days to expiry and only 0.5 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a dead or abandoned market where the 0¢ price for Chelsea may simply reflect failed order matching rather than market consensus.

Resolution rules

If Nottingham wins the Chelsea vs Nottingham professional EPL soccer game originally scheduled for May 4, 2026 after 90 minutes plus stoppage time (does not include extra time or penalties), then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5064.3%
IY (No) 451.8%
Adj IY 2532%
CRI 3
Overround -0.0%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)5064.3%
IY (No)451.8%
Adj IY2532%
CRI3
Overround-0.0%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
1¢
Computed
4/24/2026, 10:57:05 AM
Indicators computed 4/24/2026, 10:53:43 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXEPLGAME-26MAY04CFCNFO-NFO yes 100

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