What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 37¢ (37% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 6257.8% and 442.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3544.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 30¢ price significantly undervalues Antonelli's fastest lap probability relative to his qualifying and race performance metrics.

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37¢

Bid/Ask 21/36¢·Spread 15¢·Vol $233.55·OI $4,047.24·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining

KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-ANT

7-day price172 snapshots · 14 regime

32¢21¢ current

Apr 820¢Apr 25

Analysis

8d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 3544.8% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 30¢ price significantly undervalues Antonelli's fastest lap probability relative to his qualifying and race performance metrics. The thin liquidity ($27 24h volume, $1,932 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread indicate low confidence in price discovery, creating potential arbitrage opportunities for informed traders with conviction on Antonelli's competitiveness. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, the market remains relatively stable, though the taker regime (0.636 score) suggests recent price action has been driven by aggressive buying rather than organic market consensus.

Resolution rules

If Andrea Kimi Antonelli records the fastest valid lap time in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 6257.8%

IY (No) 442.2%

Adj IY 6258%

CRI 4

RV 395%

VR 0.51

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	6257.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	442.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6258%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	395%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.51	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

taker

Score

0.636

Spread

15¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:32:41 PM

Observability directEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:23:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-ANT yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →