Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will Argentina’s annual inflation in 2026 be between 25% and 29.9%?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Polymarket, closing January 10, 2027. Argentina's inflation outcome has shifted dramatically bearish over the past week, with the Yes price collapsing from 23¢ to 16¢, suggesting traders now view sub-25% or 30%+ inflation as more likely than the 25-29.9% band.
Analysis
Argentina's inflation outcome has shifted dramatically bearish over the past week, with the Yes price collapsing from 23¢ to 16¢, suggesting traders now view sub-25% or 30%+ inflation as more likely than the 25-29.9% band. The extreme 715% implied yield on Yes positions reflects massive asymmetric payoff potential if inflation lands in this narrow range, but the combination of low liquidity ($200 daily volume), wide 6¢ spread, and extraordinarily high realized volatility (817%) indicates substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing rather than conviction. With 268 days to resolution and an information arrival rate of 1.5 events per hour, this market remains highly sensitive to Argentina's monetary policy developments and currency dynamics, making the current 16¢ price potentially exploitable for contrarian traders if they believe recent pessimism is overdone.
Resolution rules
This is a market about Argentinian inflation over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC) of Argentina. This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI / IPC) over the 12-month period ending in December 2026 (Variación % interanual Total nacional) according to the monthly INDEC report. The resolution source for this market will be the INDEC Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026 (https://www.indec.gob.ar/), expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. You can find this report by clicking on the “Precios al consumidor” option on the home page of https://www.indec.gob.ar/, and searching the pdf for the figure under “Variación % interanual Total nacional”. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly INDEC CPI (IPC) news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 33.6%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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sf trade 0x4ea5177566bdb21120d0e511fb37b33e8f5b1249f76c5fcdd8ef8d7a41817f45 yes 100