Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap
Prediction markets currently give a 29% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Fastest Lap. This contract trades at 29¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering a nonsensical 38,128.9% implied yield versus just 36.5% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or a data anomaly rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the Yes side offering a nonsensical 38,128.9% implied yield versus just 36.5% for No, suggesting severe mispricing or a data anomaly rather than genuine arbitrage opportunity. The 29¢ spread on a 32¢ price is unusually wide (47% relative spread), and with only $104 in 24-hour volume against $1,405 open interest, liquidity is critically thin—typical of low-conviction or niche betting pools. The flat 7-day price action (stuck at 3¢) combined with 31 days to expiry and a neutral regime score indicates this market lacks momentum, making it difficult to assess whether the current pricing reflects genuine uncertainty about George Russell's fastest lap odds or simply reflects illiquidity and low participation.
Resolution rules
If George Russell records the fastest valid lap time in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1FASTLAP-MIAGP26-RUS yes 100