What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix Winner"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 7¢ (7% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix Winner"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 31606.1% and 87.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix Winner"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix Winner

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Miami Grand Prix Winner. This contract trades at 7¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 38,270% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues Lando Norris's winning probability at the Miami Grand Prix.

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7¢

Bid/Ask 5/7¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $456.19·OI $26,052.92·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining

KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-NOR

7-day price16 snapshots · 31 regime

6¢5¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 25

Analysis

8d ago

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 38,270% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 5¢ price significantly undervalues Lando Norris's winning probability at the Miami Grand Prix. The sharp recent decline from 4¢ to 3¢ over seven days combined with a modest 2¢ spread and thin $517 daily volume indicates low liquidity is likely driving the distorted pricing rather than genuine conviction about Norris's chances. With 31 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this contract carries meaningful event risk, making the extreme yield figures potentially misleading for practical trading purposes.

Resolution rules

If Lando Norris finishes in first in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 31606.1%

IY (No) 87.6%

Adj IY 15803%

CRI 19

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	31606.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	87.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	15803%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	19	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:32:39 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:23:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-NOR yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →