Miami Grand Prix Winner
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Miami Grand Prix Winner. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 13,611.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 102.9% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues Oscar Piastri's winning probability or reflects heavy skew toward No positions.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with a 13,611.5% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 102.9% on the No side, suggesting the 10¢ price significantly undervalues Oscar Piastri's winning probability or reflects heavy skew toward No positions. The recent 60% price appreciation over seven days (5¢ to 8¢, with current price at 10¢) indicates notable momentum, though the thin 24-hour volume of $1,235.76 against $12,450.76 open interest raises liquidity concerns for position entry or exit. With 31 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 12, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the extreme yield differential and low volume warrant caution about execution slippage on larger orders.
Resolution rules
If Oscar Piastri finishes in first in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-PIA yes 100