Miami Grand Prix Winner
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Miami Grand Prix Winner. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme yield metrics (1851% on the Yes side) that appear disconnected from the modest 40¢ price point, suggesting either mispricing or an unusual contract structure—the risk-adjusted yield of 926% remains notably high even after adjustment.
Analysis
This market shows extreme yield metrics (1851% on the Yes side) that appear disconnected from the modest 40¢ price point, suggesting either mispricing or an unusual contract structure—the risk-adjusted yield of 926% remains notably high even after adjustment. With only $145.98 in 24-hour volume against $5,540.98 open interest, liquidity is thin relative to positions held, creating potential execution challenges and widening the true bid-ask spread beyond the quoted 1¢. The market has drifted down 1¢ over seven days despite 31 days to expiry and a neutral regime, indicating either declining confidence in George Russell's chances or profit-taking by early position holders.
Resolution rules
If George Russell finishes in first in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXF1RACE-MIAGP26-RUS yes 100