What is the current probability for "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 34¢ (34% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 17, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 4734.5% and 584.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 34% probability that Miami Grand Prix: Top 5 Finishers. This contract trades at 34¢ on Kalshi, closing May 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $459 in open interest, making the 34¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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34¢

Bid/Ask 26/33¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $79.26·OI $895.06·Closes May 17, 2026·22d remaining

KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-VER

7-day price14 snapshots · 7 regime

27¢26¢ current

Apr 824¢Apr 25

Analysis

8d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $459 in open interest, making the 34¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 3368.7% implied yield on the Yes side is a red flag indicating mispricing or insufficient liquidity rather than genuine opportunity, especially given the wide 7¢ spread and neutral regime score. With 31 days to expiry and Max Verstappen's historical dominance in Formula 1, the 34% probability appears notably low and warrants skepticism given the thin market conditions.

Resolution rules

If Max Verstappen finishes in the top 5 in the Miami Grand Prix originally scheduled for May 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4734.5%

IY (No) 584.5%

Adj IY 2367%

CRI 3

Overround 3.7%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4734.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	584.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2367%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.7%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

7¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 11:32:36 PM

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 11:23:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXF1TOP5-MIAGP26-VER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →