Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will dissent at the April 2026 FOMC meeting?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing April 29, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 19,282% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 13 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity ($2.05 open interest, $1.11 daily volume) is distorting the price discovery mechanism.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 19,282% implied yield on the Yes side despite only 13 days to expiration, suggesting severe illiquidity ($2.05 open interest, $1.11 daily volume) is distorting the price discovery mechanism. The price has collapsed 41% over seven days (from 22¢ to 11¢), and the 7¢ spread represents 64% of the current price, indicating thin order books and high execution risk. With realized volatility at 731% and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market appears unreliable for serious trading until closer to the April 29 resolution date when actual FOMC meeting outcomes become clearer.
Resolution rules
If Christopher Waller formally dissented at the April 2026 FOMC meeting, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDDISSENT-26APR-CHRI yes 100