Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$72
4 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
497 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary
Will Eric Jones place first in the 2026 CA-04 primary?: Eric Jones
KXCAPRIMARY-04FIRST26-EJON
Cluster 2
Will Timothy Sean Kelly place first in the 2026 CA-01 primary
Will Timothy Sean Kelly place first in the 2026 CA-01 primary?: Timothy Sean Kelly
KXCAPRIMARY-01FIRST26-TKEL
Cluster 3
Will Jared Huffman place first in the 2026 CA-02 primary
Will Jared Huffman place first in the 2026 CA-02 primary?: Jared Huffman
KXCAPRIMARY-02FIRST26-JHUF
Cluster 4
Will Christopher Bennett place first in the 2026 CA-03 primary
Will Christopher Bennett place first in the 2026 CA-03 primary?: Christopher Bennett
KXCAPRIMARY-03FIRST26-CBEN
Analysis
This 32% probability reflects market expectations that a specific candidate will advance from California's 48th congressional district primary. The current price suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome, with roughly one-in-three odds assigned to this particular advancement. Primary advancement probabilities typically move based on polling data, candidate spending patterns, endorsement shifts, and voter registration changes in the district. The resolution will occur on primary election day in June 2026, when votes are counted and advancement is mathematically determined. Until then, district-level polling releases and campaign finance reports will provide concrete signals about candidate viability. The fundamental driver of uncertainty is that multiple candidates likely compete for limited advancement slots, making the field fragmented enough that any single candidate's probability remains moderate rather than dominant.
- ›Primary election date (June 2026) is the hard deadline for resolution; advancement is determined by vote totals and applicable state rules for multi-candidate races
- ›District-level polling or internal campaign data released before the primary would directly move this probability if it shows the candidate gaining or losing ground relative to competitors
- ›Campaign finance reports showing spending patterns, fundraising totals, and volunteer activity provide indirect signals about candidate momentum and viability
- ›Endorsements from local officials, state party figures, or interest groups aligned with the district can shift voter perception and consolidate support
- ›Candidate withdrawal or entry by major competitors would mechanically alter advancement odds by changing the competitive field
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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