What is the current probability for "Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 41¢ (41% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 223.7% and 99.4% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 41% probability that Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 41¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The Yes side offers an extreme 1,871% implied yield, reflecting the market's conviction that criminal charges against Fauci are highly unlikely at just 11¢, though this asymmetric payoff should be weighted against the 13 Cliff Risk Index suggesting potential binary resolution volatility.

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41¢

Bid/Ask 40/41¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $691.69·OI $10,656.12·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU

7-day price58 snapshots · 49 regime

40¢40¢ current

Apr 156¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

The Yes side offers an extreme 1,871% implied yield, reflecting the market's conviction that criminal charges against Fauci are highly unlikely at just 11¢, though this asymmetric payoff should be weighted against the 13 Cliff Risk Index suggesting potential binary resolution volatility. Volume is thin at $8.07 over 24 hours with modest open interest of $4,490, indicating limited liquidity and potential for wider spreads if positions need to unwind. The flat 7-day price action (holding at 7¢) suggests the market has stabilized around this low probability despite 259 days remaining until expiry, with the neutral regime score indicating no clear directional momentum.

Resolution rules

If Anthony Fauci has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 223.7%

IY (No) 99.4%

Adj IY 218%

CRI 2

RV 498%

VR 2.69

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	223.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	99.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	218%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	498%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.69	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.8/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.03	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

1¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 10:22:57 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 10:08:29 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →