Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
194 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Jennifer Siebel Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 2
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Anthony Fauci
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU
Cluster 3
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GNEW
Cluster 4
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Ilhan Omar
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-IOMA
Cluster 5
Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: John Brennan
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JBRE
Cluster 6
Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Adam Schiff
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ASCH
Cluster 7
Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Tim Walz
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TWAL
Cluster 8
Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Letitia James
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LJAM
Cluster 9
Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: James Clapper
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JCLA
Cluster 10
Will Fani Willis be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Fani Willis be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Fani Willis
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-FWIL
Cluster 11
Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Christopher Wray
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CWRA
Cluster 12
Will E. Jean Carroll be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will E. Jean Carroll be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: E. Jean Carroll
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ECAR
Cluster 13
Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Alvin Bragg
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ABRA
Cluster 14
Will Andrew Weissmann be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Andrew Weissmann be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Andrew Weissmann
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AWEI
Cluster 15
Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Clinton
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BCLI
Cluster 16
Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BOBA
Cluster 17
Will Cassidy Hutchinson be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 18
Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Chris Krebs
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CKRE
Cluster 19
Will Elissa Slotkin be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Elissa Slotkin be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Elissa Slotkin
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ESLO
Analysis
This reflects the market's assessment of the likelihood that Peter Strzok, the former FBI official who played a role in the Trump investigations, will face criminal charges by year-end 2026. The probability sits at 26%, suggesting traders view formal charges as unlikely but not remote within the timeframe. Movement in this probability would depend on prosecutorial decisions from the Trump Justice Department, which has signaled interest in reviewing alleged misconduct by officials involved in prior Trump investigations. Any formal criminal referral or indictment announcement would sharply increase the probability, while the arrival of 2027 without charges would resolve the question downward. Comparison markets show similar or higher probabilities for other figures in Democratic administrations or investigations, suggesting broader uncertainty about potential accountability efforts.
- ›Trump administration DOJ has explicitly reviewed conduct of FBI officials from 2016-2017 election investigations, making prosecution decisions more likely than under prior administrations
- ›No charges have been filed against Strzok as of May 2026 despite years of public scrutiny, suggesting legal barriers or insufficient evidence by prosecutors' standards
- ›Timeline is constrained to 8 months, making charges less likely than if the question extended further into 2027
- ›Related prosecution markets for Fauci (32¢), Omar (47¢), and Smith (32¢) show market pricing similar or higher, indicating broad uncertainty about accountability actions rather than unique factors favoring Strzok
- ›Formal DOJ charging decision or indictment announcement would be the primary catalyst that could move this probability substantially
What moved the line
- Jun 19Anthony Fauci↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 16Gavin Newsom↑4pp12→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15John Brennan↑4pp51→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 15E. Jean Carroll↓4pp32→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 17Jennifer Siebel Newsom↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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