Will Peter Strzok be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$18K
19 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
127 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Anthony Fauci
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AFAU
Cluster 2
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Ilhan Omar be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Ilhan Omar
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-IOMA
Cluster 3
Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Letitia James
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LJAM
Cluster 4
Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Jack Smith be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Jack Smith
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JSMI
Cluster 5
Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Alvin Bragg be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Alvin Bragg
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ABRA
Cluster 6
Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Barack Obama be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Barack Obama
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BOBA
Cluster 7
Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: John Brennan
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JBRE
Cluster 8
Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Adam Schiff
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ASCH
Cluster 9
Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Tim Walz
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TWAL
Cluster 10
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gavin Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Gavin Newsom
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GNEW
Cluster 11
Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Christopher Wray
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CWRA
Cluster 12
Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Bill Clinton
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BCLI
Cluster 13
Will Lisa Cook be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Lisa Cook be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Lisa Cook
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LCOO
Cluster 14
Will Gustavo Petro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Gustavo Petro be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Gustavo Petro
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-GPET
Cluster 15
Will Hunter Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Hunter Biden be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-HBID
Cluster 16
Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Chris Krebs be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Chris Krebs
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CKRE
Cluster 17
Will Jennifer Siebel Newsom be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Cluster 18
Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will James Clapper be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: James Clapper
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JCLA
Cluster 19
Will Andrew Weissmann be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027
Will Andrew Weissmann be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?: Andrew Weissmann
KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-AWEI
Analysis
This market estimates a 17% chance that former FBI official Peter Strzok faces criminal charges before January 1, 2027—roughly six months away. The probability reflects that while Strzok has faced significant scrutiny and calls for prosecution from some lawmakers, no formal charges have materialized despite multiple investigations over the past several years. The current level suggests markets view prosecution as unlikely but not implausible. Key factors driving this assessment include the statute of limitations on potential underlying conduct, the political nature of any investigation, and prosecutorial discretion by relevant authorities. The main uncertainty driver would be any new federal indictment or announcement by the Department of Justice regarding investigation status before year-end.
- ›Strzok has not been charged despite multiple congressional investigations and DOJ inquiries dating back to 2017-2018, suggesting prosecutorial barriers exist
- ›Statutes of limitations on potential misconduct related to his FBI work may be approaching expiration, creating a deadline effect for any prosecution
- ›Relevant statutes of limitations typically expire 5-7 years after alleged conduct, with key events occurring in 2016-2017
- ›Any charges would likely require DOJ action, making prosecutorial discretion and current administration priorities material factors
- ›Political context and potential motivations behind prosecution attempts may affect which charges, if any, could withstand legal scrutiny
What moved the line
- Aug 23Anthony Fauci↑7pp48→55¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 27Anthony Fauci↑7pp41→48¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Anthony Fauci↓6pp54→48¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 25Anthony Fauci↓6pp52→46¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Ilhan Omar↑6pp17→23¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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