Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Adam Schiff be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 687.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus 28.9% on the "No" side, suggesting sharp disagreement about Schiff's prosecution risk despite the low 21¢ price.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 687.7% implied yield on the "Yes" side versus 28.9% on the "No" side, suggesting sharp disagreement about Schiff's prosecution risk despite the low 21¢ price. Volume is notably thin at $159.56 in 24 hours against $5,904.86 open interest, indicating low liquidity that could amplify price swings—particularly concerning given the dramatic 4¢-to-17¢ movement over seven days, which represents a 325% price surge. With 259 days to expiry and a moderate 5 Cliff Risk Index, the market appears to be pricing in a low but non-negligible prosecution scenario, though the illiquidity warrants caution for larger position entries.
Resolution rules
If Adam Schiff has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-ASCH yes 100