Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Bill Clinton be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The 8¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in a criminal charge outcome, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 1,619.8% implied yield that vastly exceeds the No side's 12.2%, suggesting significant asymmetric risk-reward for contrarian bettors.
Analysis
The 8¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in a criminal charge outcome, with the Yes side offering an extraordinary 1,619.8% implied yield that vastly exceeds the No side's 12.2%, suggesting significant asymmetric risk-reward for contrarian bettors. Despite substantial open interest of $10,443, the market shows concerning illiquidity with only $18 in 24-hour volume and a 2¢ spread, indicating thin order books that could amplify slippage on larger positions. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 12 combined with 259 days to expiration warrants caution, as late-breaking developments could trigger sharp repricing in this low-probability event market.
Resolution rules
If Bill Clinton has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-BCLI yes 100