Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Christopher Wray be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1033% implied yield on the Yes side versus 19.2% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the charging probability relative to market expectations for similar political figures.
Analysis
This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 1033% implied yield on the Yes side versus 19.2% on the No side, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the charging probability relative to market expectations for similar political figures. The $0 24-hour volume combined with only $1,928 open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity, making the price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to slippage on larger trades. With 259 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this market carries meaningful tail risk, though the neutral regime score suggests no immediate catalyst is priced in.
Resolution rules
If Christopher Wray has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-CWRA yes 100