Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 66% probability that Will John Brennan be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 66¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing a 72% probability of charges against Brennan by year-end 2026, but the extreme 313.5% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of the outcome where he avoids charges—a classic indicator of tail risk mispricing.
Analysis
The market is pricing a 72% probability of charges against Brennan by year-end 2026, but the extreme 313.5% implied yield on the No side suggests significant underpricing of the outcome where he avoids charges—a classic indicator of tail risk mispricing. The 642% realized volatility and sharp 12-cent rally over seven days (57¢ to 69¢) signal recent information arrival (0.9/h), though thin 24-hour volume of just $351 raises liquidity concerns for a market with $11.6k open interest and 259 days to expiry.
Resolution rules
If John Brennan has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-JBRE yes 100