What is the current probability for "Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 58¢ (58% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 112.5% and 197.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 58% probability that Will Letitia James be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 58¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 299% annualized return versus 66% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about charging odds for New York's Attorney General.

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58¢

Bid/Ask 57/60¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $280.62·OI $9,902.47·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LJAM

7-day price25 snapshots · 18 regime

59¢57¢ current

Apr 1532¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with the Yes side offering 299% annualized return versus 66% for No, suggesting significant mispricing or genuine uncertainty about charging odds for New York's Attorney General. The 34¢ price reflects a relatively low probability despite 259 days of runway, and the thin $123.52 daily volume with $8.2k open interest indicates minimal liquidity that could amplify volatility if new information emerges. The flat 7-day price action (33¢ to 32¢) and neutral regime score suggest the market has settled into a holding pattern, though the 2¢ spread is reasonably tight for such a low-liquidity contract.

Resolution rules

If Letitia James has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 112.5%

IY (No) 197.7%

Adj IY 198%

CRI 1

RV 168%

VR 1.53

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	112.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	197.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	198%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	168%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.53	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

3¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 10:22:16 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 5/1/2026, 10:08:29 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-LJAM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →