Will Mark Kelly be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Mark Kelly be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market is pricing an extremely low 9% probability of charges against Mark Kelly by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers a striking 1,871% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure.
Analysis
The market is pricing an extremely low 9% probability of charges against Mark Kelly by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers a striking 1,871% implied yield, suggesting significant underpricing relative to the binary outcome structure. With only $9 in 24-hour volume against $3,972 open interest and a 2¢ spread, liquidity is notably thin for a market with 259 days to expiration, creating potential execution challenges for larger positions. The neutral regime score and moderate 13 cliff risk index indicate stable pricing dynamics, but the massive yield asymmetry warrants scrutiny—this could reflect either genuine confidence in no-charge resolution or illiquidity-driven mispricing.
Resolution rules
If Mark Kelly has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-MKEL yes 100