What is the current probability for "Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 22¢ (22% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 245 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 635.7% and 35.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 22% probability that Will Tim Walz be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 22¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. The market prices an extremely low 12% probability of charges against Tim Walz by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers a striking 1,033% implied yield—a massive risk-reward skew typical of tail-risk markets.

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22¢

Bid/Ask 19/22¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $1,478.46·OI $64,995.7·Closes Jan 1, 2027·245d remaining

KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TWAL

7-day price70 snapshots · 29 regime

19¢19¢ current

Apr 810¢May 1

Analysis

14d ago

The market prices an extremely low 12% probability of charges against Tim Walz by year-end 2026, yet the Yes side offers a striking 1,033% implied yield—a massive risk-reward skew typical of tail-risk markets. Volume is thin at just $303 in 24-hour trading against $63k open interest, suggesting limited liquidity for position sizing, while the modest 2-cent spread and neutral regime indicate stable pricing despite the asymmetric payoff structure. The recent 2-cent price uptick over seven days and moderate cliff risk score (7/10) suggest modest event-driven movement, but the contract's 259-day runway leaves ample time for narrative shifts around the Vice President-elect.

Resolution rules

If Tim Walz has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 635.7%

IY (No) 35.0%

Adj IY 535%

CRI 4

RV 529%

VR 1.73

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	635.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	35.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	535%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	529%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.73	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.7/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.9%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.16	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

3¢

Computed

5/1/2026, 10:22:28 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 5/1/2026, 10:08:29 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFEDERALCHARGE-27JAN01-TWAL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →