ISM Manufacturing PMI in Apr 2026?

This market is pricing in a 73% probability of the ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeding 50 in April 2026, but the extremely thin liquidity ($131.61 open interest, $0 in 24-hour volume) and wide 5¢ spread suggest the price may not reflect genuine conviction. The astronomical implied yields (1027.9% for Yes, 6161.2% for No) are artifacts of the low absolute dollar amounts at stake rather than genuine market opportunities, and with only 15 days to expiry, any late-breaking economic data could create sharp repricing in this illiquid venue.

Resolution rules

If the headline PMI value in the ISM Manufacturing PMI Report On Business for April 2026, as published by ISM (one decimal place), is at least 50 in Apr 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade