What is the current probability for "Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 10¢ (10% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 1, 2026. 8 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 28757.9% and 642.1% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme volatility with the price swinging from 16¢ to 35¢ over seven days, currently settling at 26¢ with a realized volatility of 4,858% and an extraordinary implied yield of 5,844% on the Yes side.

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10¢

Bid/Ask 10/16¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $37,644.14·OI $108,010.45·Closes May 1, 2026·8d remaining

KXKASHOUT-26APR-MAY01

7-day price709 snapshots · 80 regime

53¢13¢ current

Apr 82¢Apr 22

Analysis

3d ago

This market shows extreme volatility with the price swinging from 16¢ to 35¢ over seven days, currently settling at 26¢ with a realized volatility of 4,858% and an extraordinary implied yield of 5,844% on the Yes side. With only 12 days until expiration and a modest $37,913 in 24-hour volume against $46,415 open interest, liquidity is relatively tight for such a binary outcome, and the 4¢ spread suggests some pricing uncertainty. The high info arrival rate of 5.3 events per hour combined with the cliff risk index of 2 indicates this market is sensitive to breaking news, making the current 26% probability potentially unstable as we approach the May 1 deadline.

Resolution rules

If Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 28757.9%

IY (No) 642.1%

Adj IY 17698%

CRI 7

RV 8081%

VR 2.51

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	28757.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	642.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	17698%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	8081%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	2.51	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	3.6/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	1.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.38	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 4:16:52 PM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 4:08:23 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXKASHOUT-26APR-MAY01 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →