Will Kash Patel leaves as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026
Leader sits at 12% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Dec 1, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Before Nov 1, 2026
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$309
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
72 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kash Patel be out as FBI Director before
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectation that Kash Patel will leave his role as FBI Director before December 1, 2026—currently assessed at 14%, suggesting markets view his departure as unlikely but non-negligible. The relatively low probability likely reflects Patel's recent appointment and stated commitment to the role, though removal could occur through resignation, firing, or a change in administration. Key factors influencing this assessment include his relationship with political leadership, any major controversies or personnel disputes at the FBI, congressional pressure or confirmation challenges, and broader shifts in executive branch leadership. The timeframe captures potential departures through the end of 2026, making it sensitive to unexpected political developments or institutional conflicts that could accelerate an exit.
- ›Patel's tenure length and track record of retention in previous high-profile positions
- ›Occurrence of major scandals, investigative failures, or internal FBI conflicts that could trigger resignation or removal pressure
- ›Changes in presidential or congressional leadership that could alter his political standing or role
- ›Public statements or evidence of conflict between Patel and his direct superiors or the administration
- ›Market contract volume and pricing gaps across different departure-date thresholds (Dec 1 vs Nov 1 suggests marginal uncertainty about timing)
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Dec 1, 2026↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Before Dec 1, 2026↓4pp17→13¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (12% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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