What is the current probability for "Will Levante be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on May 25, 2026. 30 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Levante be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 498.4% and 2987.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Levante be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Levante be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Levante be Relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 Season?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing May 25, 2026. Levante's relegation odds have surged dramatically from 49¢ to 78¢ over seven days, now pricing in an 84% probability of demotion with just 38 days until resolution.

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85¢

Bid/Ask 71/78¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $150·Closes May 25, 2026·30d remaining

KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-LEV

7-day price150 snapshots · 8 regime

84¢71¢ current

Apr 815¢Apr 24

Analysis

8d ago

Levante's relegation odds have surged dramatically from 49¢ to 78¢ over seven days, now pricing in an 84% probability of demotion with just 38 days until resolution. The extreme yield asymmetry (270% for Yes vs. 3,397% for No) combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and minimal $147 open interest suggests this is a thin, illiquid market where the sharp price movement may reflect limited trading rather than genuine information flow. With realized volatility at 5,852% and a cliff risk index of 4, this market exhibits high uncertainty and potential for dramatic repricing as the 2025-26 season approaches.

Resolution rules

If Levante is relegated from La Liga in 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 498.4%

IY (No) 2987.6%

Adj IY 2693%

CRI 2

RV 3381%

VR 11.02

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	498.4%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2987.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2693%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	3381%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	11.02	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.3/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	3.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.10	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/25/2026, 4:03:00 AM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/25/2026, 4:08:44 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLALIGARELEGATION-26-LEV yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →