What is the current probability for "Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 15, 2026. 201 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1635.9% and 20.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that Will San Diego be the 2026 NL West Division Winner. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing November 15, 2026. San Diego's 7-cent price reflects a heavily bearish consensus, with the Padres priced as extreme longshots despite over a year until resolution.

█████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

12¢

Bid/Ask 10/13¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $2,648.54·OI $88,053.94·Closes Nov 15, 2026·201d remaining

KXMLBNLWEST-26-SD

7-day price291 snapshots · 109 regime

13¢10¢ current

Apr 94¢Apr 28

Analysis

11d ago

San Diego's 7-cent price reflects a heavily bearish consensus, with the Padres priced as extreme longshots despite over a year until resolution. The asymmetric implied yields (3,269% for Yes vs. 9.1% for No) and modest $48k open interest suggest thin conviction among traders, making this a speculative contrarian play rather than a liquid consensus market. With 212 days to expiry and negligible 7-day price movement, the market appears fairly settled, though the 19 Cliff Risk Index warrants caution on sudden repricing if San Diego makes unexpected mid-season moves.

Resolution rules

If San Diego is the 2026 Pro Baseball NL West Division Winner, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1635.9%

IY (No) 20.2%

Adj IY 1145%

CRI 9

RV 1606%

VR 3.72

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1635.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	20.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1145%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	9	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1606%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.72	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.2/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
LAS	0.30	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/28/2026, 8:46:57 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/28/2026, 8:38:26 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBNLWEST-26-SD yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →