Will San Diego win at least 80 games this season?
Prediction markets currently give a 77% probability that Will San Diego win at least 80 games this season?. This contract trades at 77¢ on Kalshi, closing November 8, 2026. The San Diego Padres 80-win market shows a sharp 16-cent rally over seven days to 74¢, pricing in roughly a 3-in-4 chance of reaching that threshold with 205 days to expiry.
Analysis
The San Diego Padres 80-win market shows a sharp 16-cent rally over seven days to 74¢, pricing in roughly a 3-in-4 chance of reaching that threshold with 205 days to expiry. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (76% for Yes vs. 415% for No) combined with minimal 24-hour volume of just $46 and a 517% realized volatility suggest this thin market ($1,942 open interest) may be mispricing tail risk, particularly given the No side's outsized yield reflecting deep illiquidity rather than fundamental conviction. The 5.20 volatility ratio and 2.0 cliff risk index indicate elevated event concentration risk as the season progresses.
Resolution rules
If San Diego has 80+ wins in the 2026 pro baseball team regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMLBWINS-SD-26-T80 yes 100